Report: Biofuels the most expensive option

The study, produced for OGCI and Concawe by Ricardo outlines three possible pathways broadly characterised as:

1. The early pursuit of green ammonia and hydrogen. This option focusses on the use of ammonia and hydrogen as a fuel for newbuild vessels, culminating in every new vessel using these low-carbon fuels by 2035. In this scenario there is medium take-up of energy efficiency technologies and measures.

2. Replacing fossil fuels with drop-in liquid and gaseous biofuels. This option involves moderate uptake of interim and drop-in fuels and calls for heavy fuel oil, marine diesel oil and LNG use to be substituted with drop-in biofuels from 2025. In this pathway there is also medium level take-up of energy efficiency technology and measures.

3. Maximum uptake of energy efficiency technologies, carbon capture onboard vessels and the gradual increase of green ammonia and methanol. This option involves initial maximisation of vessel decarbonisation measures, focuses on maximising technology use with subsequent transition to alternative fuels. Under this scenario there is a high take-up of energy efficiency technologies and operational measures. This is accompanied by carbon capture onboard vessels and the gradual increase of ammonia and methanol fuel on newbuild vessels by 2035.

All three pathways are estimated to meet the IMO’s decarbonisation goals when calculating greenhouse gas emissions from well-to-wake. However, when considering total costs through to 2050, the study estimated that pathway 2, while facing fewer barriers to deployment, would be more expensive than the fuel switches of pathways 1 and 3 that would require new vessel engine investments.

Tim Scarbrough, Ricardo Associate Director and one of the report authors, said: “This analysis shows that research investment in the short term to demonstrate the deployment of zero and low carbon fuels will pay off in the long term.

“Unlocking these zero-carbon fuel pathways will avoid higher emission pathways becoming locked in. At the same time, the deployment of energy efficiency technologies and operational measures is also vital in the short term to reduce the consumption of fossil fuels prior to that transition. A tightening of the IMO’s decarbonisation target would help to underline the need for these near-term choices.”

The analysis is based on literature review and stakeholder interviews. The impact on the future fleet, operations, greenhouse gas emissions and costs is assessed for each scenario and likely barriers identified.

The study, Technological, Operational and Energy Pathways for Maritime Transport to Reduce Emissions Towards 2050, is available here.