ZEV study maps 2050 action needed

The ‘Zero-Emission Vessels Transition Pathways’ study, released by Lloyd’s Register (LR) and University Maritime Advisory Services (UMAS), finds that 2020-2030 is the most significant decade for ZEV development and addresses what needs to happen between now and in the next three decades, while considering influencing factors such as cost, operating profile and policy measures.

LR’s global sustainability manager, Katharine Palmer, commented: “2020 – 2030 is the most significant decade and the study stresses the urgency for early action. Scaling up of zero-carbon fuels relies on clarity of the direction taken in the wider energy system. Uncertainty risks delaying important investments within the world’s fleet and infrastructure.”

2020-2030

Looking at 2020-2030, the study found that there is still uncertainty when choosing one fuel, one technology and one route and therefore this decade will need to see full-scale pilots and prototypes, the development of policy, standards and rules, and will be characterised by first adopters driven by consumer pressure.

Batteries in short-sea markets, or if used as hybrids, and on-shore power supply will play an important role in reducing the dependency on fossil fuels. Easy to store zero or low-carbon fuels may also be an attractive solution as existing infrastructure and machinery can be used to ease the transition, the study noted.

2030s

The 2030s will see the scaling up of zero-carbon solutions, predicted the study, stating it will be important for potential fuel producers to given clarity on development.

“We expect to see a consolidation of what the dominant technologies for use on board will be and the interactions between end-fuel price, machinery costs and revenue loss will be better understood. We will start to see ships being designed to store less energy on board and changes to their operating profile to bunker more frequently,” stated the study.

Up to 2050s

Up to the 2050s there may simultaneous developments, e.g. a growing share of biofuels in the 2020s with ongoing efforts to develop fuels produced from renewable electricity, referred to as electro-fuels, resulting in a major shift to electro-fuels in the 2040s and 2050s.

“We expect that by 2050, and beyond consolidation of the market, to see an end fuel mix dominated by one family of fuels,” the study stated.