DNV and RSI release study on decarbonising the short sea dry bulk fleet

Backed by the Swedish Transport Administration, the report – Decarbonisation of the short sea dry bulk fleet – shows that while Swedish cargo owners are committed to lower-emission transport, progress is being obstructed by a regulatory and investment vacuum for smaller vessels.

Europe’s ageing short sea fleet is approaching the end of its useful life. Many vessels fall below the 5,000 GT threshold and are therefore not covered by EU or IMO emissions regulations. The consequence is a lack of clear commercial rationale for shipowners to invest in cleaner replacements. For cargo owners such as RSI members EFO AB, Lantmännen, SSAB, Stockholm Exergi and Södra, this leaves an awkward problem: how to decarbonise their supply chains when the ships they depend on remain effectively outside the regulatory net.

RSI chairman Sebastian Tamm, who is also manager logistics Development at EFO, said the group had long promoted responsible shipping, but that the pandemic prompted a pivot towards emissions. “Our short-term Contracts of Affreightment limit shipowners’ ability to invest in radically different vessels,” he said. “This study highlights the need to turn long-term decarbonisation goals into actionable short-term targets.”

The study was structured around three work packages. The first used AIS data to model emissions baselines across RSI members and map high-emission trades. The second explored the green premium of shifting to e-methanol, comparing lifecycle costs with conventional marine gas oil, while testing policy interventions and efficiency gains that might close the funding gap. The final part used a fleet renewal model to assess how fast old vessels would need replacing to meet climate targets and whether alternatives such as biofuels or operational tweaks might suffice.

According to DNV Maritime’s Hannes von Knorring, a key obstacle is the mismatch between fuel costs and market signals. “Shipowners face uncertainty around long-term costs and demand,” he said. “Cargo owners also often lack insight into fuel options and their supply chain impact.”

Although RSI’s fleet sits outside the current regulatory framework, new EU rules requiring emissions reporting will apply from this year – giving cargo owners the data to begin setting serious targets. “RSI’s mission is to share knowledge, set standards, and find common ground for future shipping needs,” von Knorring added. “We are pleased to support that effort.”

For now, the gap between ambition and action remains. But with reporting obligations tightening and fuel costs rising, the strategic case for greener tonnage is at least beginning to harden. Whether it can be matched by the economic case may yet determine the pace of progress.