EXCLUSIVE: How uncertainty is reshaping shipping investment

Based on a survey of 225 maritime leaders, the report examines how shipowners are balancing decarbonisation requirements with financial returns, as emissions regulations increasingly translate into direct operating costs.

The report, At the helm in shipping – how to navigate regulation, risk and ROI, finds that while confidence remains high across the industry, decision-making has become significantly more complex.

In an exclusive interview with The Motorship, Roger Holm, president of Wärtsilä Marine and executive vice president, explains: “What comes through here is of course not something that is built up during a short time period, the report shows that shipping has moved to a more complex decision-making process.”

Hindering investment

According to the survey, more than 90% of respondents are confident in their ability to lead through the energy transition. However, nearly 70% say uncertainty is hindering their ability to prioritise investments, while 42% cite balancing decarbonisation spending with acceptable returns as a core challenge.

Mr Holm emphasises that the report’s central message is the need to shift from isolated decision-making towards a lifecycle-based approach.

“It’s not enough anymore to just look at newbuild decisions as stand alone, you need to take into account what happens during the 25 to 30 years of the entire lifecycle for your vessel,” he says.

This lifecycle perspective is increasingly critical as regulatory frameworks such as emissions trading and fuel standards begin to directly impact vessel operating costs.

The report highlights how decisions around fuel selection, asset utilisation and technology adoption are now being made under heightened regulatory and commercial pressure.

A key insight emerging from both the report and from Mr Holm himself is the growing importance of flexibility and upgradeability in vessel design.

Mr Holm points to methane slip reduction as a practical example of how forward-thinking decisions can deliver significant cost savings.

“Right now we have the standard 3.1% methane slip under EU regulations, but with our new engine technology you can go significantly below that, to reach very close to 1%, that can mean millions per year in cost reduction.”

He adds that such considerations are no longer optional, particularly for vessels expected to remain in operation through to 2050.

“Flexibility is a key here and more importantly, how do you create this flexibility?” he says, noting that the ability to upgrade systems over time can help operators avoid stranded assets in a rapidly evolving regulatory landscape.

Data is key

Beyond technical design, the report underscores the increasing role of data and digitalisation in managing risk and optimising performance.

Mr Holm highlights how AI-enabled tools, combined with domain expertise, are enabling more predictive and efficient vessel operations.

“It’s not just about using AI tools, it’s using AI tools in combination with the expertise that we have to provide real insight, then we can improve uptime reliability,” he says.

“But AI applications need to be combined with expertise about the product itself, that’s key.”

The findings of the survey also reinforce the importance of collaboration across the maritime ecosystem.

Long-term partnerships between operators and original equipment manufacturers are identified as a key mechanism for reducing uncertainty, providing access to operational data and enabling more informed decision-making.

Mr Holm stresses that this collaborative approach will be essential as the industry navigates what he described as an unprecedented period of change.

“The clear outcome is that you need to think big picture when you make decisions. We are now seeing huge changes during one vessel lifetime… I’m not sure we have ever seen change on such a scale ever before,” he says.

Ultimately, the report positions shipping at a critical juncture, where confidence and capability must be matched by more integrated, forward-looking strategies.

As Mr Holm says: “Close collaboration is really the key here to help to optimise that journey.”

He advises to create maximum flexibility when you make a new build decision because it’s an insurance premium that usually costs much lower than what you would have to outlay if you need to do a massive retrofit in future.

“Taking proactive steps today is critical. Focus on lifetime value at different points because the vessel that you’re ordering now will see some of the biggest changes ever during its lifetime,” he concludes.