Global container volume to top pre-crisis levels

Full-year volumes are expected to exceed the pre-crisis volumes of 535 Mteu recorded in 2008. Last year, global container port handling is estimated to have dropped by 8.6% to 489 Mteu, the first annual decline recorded in history.

The robust 2010 growth projections come on the back of a strong first half. Global handling volumes in the first six months to June are estimated to have grown by 18%. The full-year growth forecast takes into account a slowdown in the second half of the year due to the uncertainty over the sustainability of global demand. Handling volumes are expected to grow by 6% in the second half, reflecting partly the higher base seen in the second half of last year, as well as the anticipated slowdown in trade volume growth.

The growth will be led by China, with total handling volumes at Chinese ports (including Hong Kong) expected to reach 165 Mteu this year. In the first six months of the year, Chinese ports handled 80 Mteu compared to 66 Mteu in the same period of 2009 and 74 Mteu a year before that 2008.

Middle East ports are expected to post the lowest growth rates this year at 4.5%. However, the Middle East ports were the only region to post positive growth in 2009 of 0.8%, whereas the other regions saw volume declines ranging from a 1.9% fall in African ports to a 16.4% fall in North European ports. There remains significant uncertainty over the prospects for the second half, with demand prospects in the European economies currently still unclear.

Demand recovery in the US is also slowing as weaker consumer spending and lower growth coming from companies restocking inventory would lead to lower volume growth in the second half. Any significant slowdown in the key consumer markets of Europe and the US will have a major impact on exports from the Far East. The Far East accounted for 52% of global container throughput in 2009 and its dominance is expected to grow further in 2010, with its share of global throughput rising to 53%.