Container vessel deliveries surge in 2010

The figure is substantially above the 1.07 Mteu delivered in 2009 and represents the second-highest annual increase in terms of teu capacity, just short of the 1.57 Mteu delivered in 2008. Total cellular capacity is forecast to reach 14.30 Mteu by the end of December.

The fleet capacity growth is expected to reach 9.5% after taking into account the about 180,000 TEU deleted this year, both through scrapping and the removal of vessels from the cellular fleet following conversion for other uses. Some 276 containerships should be delivered this year, a figure comparable to the 268 units delivered in 2009. However, the average size of new ships has increased from last year’s 3,990 TEU to 5,150 TEU in 2010.

A record number of ships has been deferred or delayed over the past two years due to the financial crisis. About 100 ships for 530,000 TEU delivered in 2010 were initially planned for delivery in 2009, while around 65 ships for 435,000 TEU initially planned for delivery in 2010 have been deferred or delayed to 2011 and beyond. Net capacity growth is expected to reach 9.1% next year, with 1.40 Mteu of new capacity due to enter service.

There remain about 20 vessels for 180,000 TEU whose construction has been fully completed during the past 12 months but whose deliveries have been deferred for operational and financial reasons. With the improved environment since the second quarter of this year, there has been less pressure to defer deliveries. Some owners could even commission deferred ships earlier than anticipated, due to the buoyant demand and improved financial returns.

The level of new deliveries is expected to remain close to 1.4 Mteu for each of the next two years. However, the size of new ships will rise significantly. The average size should reach 6,050 TEU for 2011 and 7,015 TEU for 2012 deliveries, as the number of new +10,000 TEU ships increases. Some 108 vessels above 10,000 TEU are expected to be delivered between now and the end of 2012, compared to 27 such units which have been delivered so far this year.

The high level of capacity infusion in the next two years will be one of the key challenges the industry faces, as demand conditions remain uncertain. Although most of the new ships of 7,500 TEU and above will be employed on the Asia-Europe and Asia-US routes, secondary trade routes will also see significant capacity additions as ships of between 5,000 and 7,500 teu will enter the South America and Middle East trades in large numbers. Demand in these trades will have to grow by more than 9% in the next two years in order to absorb the expected capacity increases.