ICCT proposes expanding North America ECAs

The non-governmental organisation predicts that total emissions of CO2, NOx, SOx, black carbon and particulate matter emissions in the region in 2025 will be 200-300% higher than 2011 emissions, even in a scenario predicting low traffic growth.

The traffic scenario is based on economic trends as well as what ICCT argues is a conservative estimate of traffic that the council believes will be rerouted through the US Arctic as melting makes the region more accessible. Increased traffic from oil and gas exploration has not been included in the forecast.

The predictions are based on continued use of heavy fuel oil and marine diesel oil. ICCT claims that switching to 0.5% sulphur fuel would result in SOx and black carbon emissions in 2025 well below 2011 levels – 35% lower for SOx and 5% for black carbon. Using 0.1% sulphur fuel – as required in ECAs – would lead to even bigger reductions.

ICCT suggested several measures to reduce the impact of increasing traffic. These include upholding the initial 2020 timeframe for introducing a global 0.1% sulphur cap on marine fuel, extending North American ECAs into Arctic waters and designating Marine Protected Areas or particularly sensitive sea areas (PSSA) – both of which provide guidelines for limiting vessel operations through fuel requirements and speed limits.

The full report can be downloaded here.