Good news for maritime sector in next 17 years

Global Marine Trends 2030, a report based on two years of research into the future of the maritime industries, indicates that 2030 could usher in a world where China would own a quarter of the merchant fleet, as seaborne trade increases from 9 billion tonnes annually to between 19-24 billion tonnes. Almost half of offshore oil will be taken from the deepest waters and there will be 100 times as many offshore wind platforms. The tanker fleet grows the slowest of all the major ship-types and the number of containerships with a capacity exceeding 7,600TEU grows three times faster than those below that threshold.

These are some of the conclusions drawn by the GMT 2030 team, which used three scenarios to model the future. These scenarios, using three key drivers – population growth, economic development and demand for resources – describe what maritime trade, sea power and the offshore energy sectors could look like in 2030.

The three scenarios are:

• Status Quo – The world will continue its current growth momentum with some booms and busts over the next twenty years.
• Global Commons – A shift to concern over resource limitation and environmental degradation will see a desire for a more sustainable world being developed and fairness in wealth distribution.
• Competing Nations – States act in their own national interest. There will be little effort to forge agreement amongst governments for sustainable development and international norms.

Richard Sadler, Lloyd’s Register’s CEO, said: “What is striking is that even in the most negative of the scenarios envisaged, maritime growth is strong. For anyone looking for a future in an important sector, they have to consider maritime: whether for employment, investment or an understanding that without seaborne trade, offshore energy and naval power, the geopolitics of tomorrow will be highly fragile and quality of life precarious. The sea and its industries are vital for our global future.”

The report team included disruptive factors that could radically alter the likelihood of the scenario results. But, barring cataclysmic change, the China factor will still be the big story in 2030. China, consuming three times-as-much oil as it does today and 60% of the world’s coal, will be the marketplace for maritime trade. The US will, however, be the biggest consumer of natural gas.