MAN 2050 DECARBONISATION SCENARIOS IDENTIFY 2020S AS KEY DECADE

The scenarios, which were published late in 2020, were developed by the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovations Research (ISI), using the institute’s MATISSE-SHIP simulation model. The study presented four alternative scenarios covering the period between 2020 and 2050. The studies note that decisions taken (or not taken) in the 2020s play a major role in the eventual scenario outcomes.

Unlike some other studies that are purely focused on technological or techno-economic analyses, the study also addressed regulatory issues (identifying the fragmentation of worldwide regulation as a potential risk factor towards broader adoption), social attitudes (including the risk of ‘dark green’ attitudes prioritising decarbonisation above economic growth) and the speed with which the necessary building blocks for the adoption of alternative fuels (including bunkering infrastructure and the emergence of a retrofit market) as key variables.

Importantly, the scenarios were refined through a series of workshops, permitting industry experts to sense-check the outputs from the quantitative model and the qualitative scenarios.

The first, A for All Aboard, offers a ‘Goldilocks’ scenario in which technological development is driving global economic growth, whilst meeting the Paris Accord’s 2 degree Centigrade target. Low carbon fuels prevail after 2035.

The second, H or Hanging On to Old Ways, proposes a world in which public scepticism about climate change targets saps governmental and corporate will to implement changes. National pathways diverge, and alternative fuels such as ammonia or SNG fail to penetrate the fuel mix until 2040 as LNG predominates.

The third, O or Out of Control, offers a pessimistic vision where climate change targets are abandoned, and most international governments turn their back on decarbonisation. The development of low carbon fuels is abandoned, with technological development focused on efficiency improvements for oil fuels.

The final scenario, Y or Yes We Can?, offers an equally downbeat vision in which environmentalists have all but halted economic growth, prioritising sustainability over consumption.

The study offers a number of interesting insights into the interrelationship between regulation and fuel choices, as well as trade-offs between the pace of decarbonisation and sustaining economic growth. For example, Scenario A presents a ‘happy medium’ between sustaining economic growth and limiting global temperature rise. The study notes the transition from LNG to low carbon ammonia and synthetic natural gas (SNG) needs to happen by 2030 for such a ‘Goldilocks’ outcome to be achievable.

The report is accessible here