FuelEU Maritime spawns unexpected profits
As the FuelEU Maritime regulation comes into effect, the industry could see a net gain of around €250 million.
“FuelEU isn’t just another penalty,” said Albrecht Grell, managing director at OceanScore. “It’s structured in a way that can push money back into parts of the industry — but only if you understand where and how that happens.”
OceanScore’s analysis shows that while the regulation creates a compliance deficit of roughly 0.8 million tonnes of CO₂e, this gap is expected to be closed through the use of biofuels. The cost? Around €200 million — relatively modest in the context of the global shipping economy.
At the same time, many operators are already passing on emissions-related costs through surcharges linked to FuelEU’s penalty rates. “It’s not a universal practice, but we’ve seen a significant number of surcharges that shadow the penalty rates,” said Grell.
If just half of operators apply these surcharges at two-thirds of the penalty level, revenue could hit €450 million — creating the €250 million net gain.
However, the distribution of that gain remains uncertain. “Ship managers are in a uniquely exposed position,” said Grell. “They’re doing the heavy lifting on compliance, yet often operate on thin margins. Managers shouldn’t be shy about asking for their share of this upside.”
As FuelEU paves the way for a compliance credit market, OceanScore is working with stakeholders to prepare. “The costs are manageable, and the opportunity is real,” Grell said. “But only if you’re prepared.”
